Raonic Is Not Young

Milos Raonic is leading a tennis revival in Canada.

He gets praise from around the sport as a potential top-five talent.

He has a chance to win a major tennis title.

All true.

But he is not young - in the cruel world of mens singles tennis.  Raonic seems like a raw, developing talent.  But the results show he is behind most top-20 players.

Raonic has a 12-8 record in the four major tennis tournaments.  He has yet to reach the quarterfinals of any of the big four events.  Before the next major (Australian Open) he will be 23 years old and his 20 matches of major experience are well behind many other players of his era. 

Here are the major records of some similar players past and present at age 22:

 - Tomas Berdych - 30-17 including one quarter final.

 -  Juan Martin del Potro - 31-6 including one win, one semi final and two quarter finals.

 -   Richard Gasquet - 28-20 including one quarter final appearance

 -   Jo Wilfrid Tsonga - reached Australian Open final at age 22. 

 Top players like Novak Djokovic are in another universe when it comes to early results.  Djokovic had a 66-19 record in majors by age 23 with one major win.  Roger Federer had one major title and two quarter final appearances by age 22.  He had a 39-13 record.  Rafa Nadal had five majors before age 23. 
    In past years, Pete Sampras had won 58 matches in majors before age 23.  He had won three titles and been to two semi finals.   The player that might compare most to Raonic is Goran Ivanisevic, who had a 45-20 record in majors at age 22.   

   This is not to be critical of Raonic.  He is progressing.  He showed a lot of game in the first set against  Djokovic in the Davis Cup.   His return of serve and net presence are improving.  

   But he is not young.  In high level tennis the career trajectory is different than most other sports.  Good players reach their peak earlier and also decline earlier.  

    Milos should expect QF and SF in majors in 2014.